The USA Has Changed the Enemy! The Taliban Are On The Powder Keg!
Former Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, Cömert Otobayev, gave a very important clue about the developments in Afghanistan on the site called "Project Syndicate", which brings together global leaders and experts.
In the article published on July 28, Otorbayev stated that the Afghanistan issue was discussed at the June 16 Geneva summit, where the leaders of the USA and Russia met, and that Putin promised to have Biden use Russian military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
What's going on? Has the USA, which has been developing policies in Central Asia for years against Russia's plans to go to the South, completely changed? Of course, it is not the USA that has changed, but its strategy.
ENEMY CHANGED, USA WITHDRAWAL!
When the USA determines China as the "main enemy" in its global strategy, it makes changes in its policy in a number of regions of the world. As long as Russia remained the main enemy, the USA was in Afghanistan, terrorism was actually an excuse. The USA sent thousands of soldiers there, lost lives, spent trillions, did not hesitate for a moment to withdraw when the general strategy changed. Such surprising (not so for some) changes in the attitude of the USA in various parts of the world will set the agenda for the coming period.
The right-wing political scientist Carl Schmitt describes the essence of foreign policy as “determining who the enemy is as the state”. All other policies are determined depending on it. Mao Zedong, on the other hand, describes the same issue as "determining the chief contradiction". Indeed, until the 1990s, the chief conflict for China (and Marxist-Leninists who followed China) was between the third world countries and the two superpowers (i.e. the Soviets and the USA). The Chinese and Chinese (not Maoists, but Chinese, just as someone was a Russian, not a Leninist) took an openly Americanist stance in various events, saying that the Soviet social imperialists, namely the Soviets, were the more dangerous superpowers between the two superpowers.
China's cooperation strategy with the USA, which China and pro-Chinese Marxist-Leninists tried to justify with scholastic theories at that time, was formed as a result of the US leader Nixon's visit to Beijing in 1972 and his promises of political and financial support to China. This agreement was made despite the objections of Mao's wife, Chiang Qing, who was ill at the time, Lin Biao, the country's second man, and others, and was actually based on no basis other than state reason and solid interests. In the end, the real Maoists were purged, the Chinese won. As Mao said in his earlier prophecy, "the missiles rose to the sky, but the red flag fell to the ground".
US-Chinese cooperation against the Soviet Union achieved its purpose. The Soviets collapsed, America profited, and China became a major economic power with US investments and support. This cooperation has been a “win-win” project not for the progressive, secular, peace-loving powers in the world, but for them.
The USA, singing victory songs on the ruins of the collapsed communist bloc, was seen as the undisputed sole ruler of the world in the 1990s. At that time, it was believed that the conflicts in the world had come to an end, and there was even talk of big (and crazy) projects that would bring democracy to the Islamic world by the hands of "moderate" Islamists. Now, although some still consider themselves and their countries to be in the "Cold War" at that time or even before, both the conditions and the strategies of the great powers have completely changed.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan is the result of this change. For the USA, the effort to implement a "containment-siege" against Russia's strategy of landing in the warm seas has now fallen to the second degree. Therefore, control of Afghanistan, the "Green Belt" in which Islamists are used against Russia, and the protection and supervision of some Islamist leaders in the Western camp are also lost in history.
THE NEXT 50 YEARS
Just as Nixon and then the famous diplomat Kissinger's talks with the Chinese in 1972-73 changed the world's 50 years, the Biden-Putin April 2021 summit concerns the plans for the next 50 years. The USA, which first came to an agreement with China and brought Russia to a point, now seeks to make an agreement with Russia and bring China into line, and the developments in Afghanistan should also be considered from this perspective. For example, the United States does not need nor does it intend to subcontract the Taliban Islamist regime to another Islamist regime that will soften it and call it to act "with reason".
“Is ISIS coming out of Afghanistan's hat?” published on Odatv on 4 July. As I mentioned in my article titled, it is an expected phenomenon that ISIS will threaten the interests of Pakistan and China in the region as a result of a sudden flash, just like it did in Syria, in the chaos this country has fallen into.